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THE ELECTION MODEL
Created by TruthIsAll

Final Projection
Last update: Nov.1, 2004 7:00 pm

Kerry 337 EV / 51.80%
Bush 201 EV / 48.20%

The model projects Kerry the winner in 27 states:

AR, CA, CO, CT, DE
DC, FL, HI, IL, IA,
ME, MD, MA, MI, MN,
MO, NH, NJ, NM, NY,
OH, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI

Election Model Projections
If the election were held today, then based on recent state polling, the Electoral Vote Simulation model calculates that John Kerry has a 99.8% probability of winning an electoral vote majority by a 337-201 margin and 51.80% of the popular vote. Kerry won 4990 of 5000 Monte Carlo simulated election trials.

Based on the average of eighteen national polls, the National Vote Projection model calculates that Kerry has a 99.99% probability of winning a popular vote majority with 51.63% of the vote.

For the final projection, the base case undecided/other allocation assumption to Kerry has been changed from 60% to 75%. This is consistent with the opinion of professional political pollsters. To gauge the sensitivity of the expected electoral vote and win probability to the allocation, the model calculated five scenarios: 60%, 67%, 75%, 80% and 87%.

            Simulation Model  Projection ModelCurrent%   State Polling     National Polling           Weighted Average  Combined AverageKerry          47.88                47.17Bush           46.89                46.89Projected%  EV/Popular Vote   Popular VoteKerry          337 / 51.80         51.63Bush           201 / 48.20         48.38Win Prob (%)    Electoral Vote    Majority Vote                (5000 trials)     (MOE: 0.73%)Kerry              99.80               99.99Bush               0.20                0.01

Bush Job Approval: 48.50% (11 Poll average)

Click for detailed polling and analytic reports
www.geocities.com/electionmodel/index_files/ElectionModel.htm

1. Kerry/Bush National Trend derived from Weighted State Polls


More graphs at: www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

The Gospel according to the Polling Gurus:
1- If an incumbent is polling below 50%, he's in trouble.
Bush is barely averaging 47%.

2- If an incumbent's approval rating is below 50%, he's in trouble.
Bush is at 48.50%.

3- If an incumbent has less than a 3%-4% lead in the final polls, hes in trouble.
Bush is tied with Kerry.

4- Undecided voters break for the challenger.

Poll Updates:
Zogby: Kerry 47 Bush 48 (Kerry -1)
TIPP: Kerry 44 Bush 45 (Kerry +4)
Rasmussen: Kerry 47.4 Bush 48.8 (Kerry -.4)
FOX: Kerry 48 Bush 45 (Kerry +1)
WaPo: Kerry 48 Bush 48 (Kerry -1)

Florida and Ohio scenarios:
If Kerry
1) wins FL and loses OH, he has a 99.3% win probability with 307 EV.
2) loses FL and wins OH, he has a 98% win probability with 300 EV.
3) loses FL and loses OH, he has a 75% win probability with 280 EV.
4) wins FL and wins OH, he has a 99.8% win probability with 327EV.

Election Model Methodology (see below for a complete description):


The Election Model actually consists of three individual models:
1) National Polling Model I based on national polls from 9 independent polling firms.
2) National Polling Model II based on national polls from 18 independent and corporate media firms.
3) Monte Carlo Simulation model - based on state polls.

In each National Polling model, the average vote percentage split is calculated. All three models PROJECT a vote percentage by ALLOCATING the undecided and others to Kerry and Bush. The base case assumption is that 60% will split for Kerry and 40% to Bush. The rationale for the assumption: historically, the undecided vote breaks for the challenger.

National and state win probabilities are calculated based on the adjusted poll projections. The Normal Distribution is used to compute the probability of winning a majority of the national votes in the National models, and the probability of winning a majority in each of the states in the Monte Carlo simulation model.

The Monte Carlo simulation method (consisting of 5000 election trials) is executed to calculate Kerrys EXPECTED Electoral Vote and win probability, based on his individual state win probabilities. The national election win probability is equal to the total number of electoral vote wins, divided by 5000 (election trials).

Sensitivity Analysis
A powerful feature of the Election Model is the built-in sensitivity analysis. We analyze how various undecided voter allocation assumptions effect Kerrys projected popular vote, electoral vote and win probability. The base case assumption is that Kerry will win 60% of the undecided vote. But what if he does better than that? What if he does worse? To get a feel for the probabilities, we calculate Kerrys prospects for the following undecided allocations: 50%, 55%, 60%, 67% and 75%.

In the EV Simulation model, Kerrys electoral vote win probabilities increase as his undecided allocation increases from 50% to 75%. His projected vote, electoral vote margin and number of winning states increase accordingly.

Both National models calculate the probability of a popular vote majority, given the same undecided allocation scenarios. The win probabilities are calculated using national polling data, unlike the EV simulation which uses state polling.

Election Model Methodology

There are three primary methods for tracking and predict elections. Each utilizes different data sources.

The first analyzes economic factors: growth, jobs, inflation, etc. Economic and political forecasters have had some success using this approach (after all, this is what they do for a living) by employing an econometric models based on multiple regression and/or factor analysis. The derived formula weights the variables in order to predict those which most affect the popular vote. How some can forecast a 58% popular vote for Bush, considering the economic and political events of the last four years, is a mystery to me.

The second method tracks the national polls and projects undecided or third party voters in order to predict the winner of the popular vote. There are about 15-20 national pollsters. A majority of the popular vote does not mean the winner will gain 270 electoral votes. For all practical purposes the winner of the popular vote will most certainly win the electoral vote. The possibility that he wont can only occur in extremely close elections where the winning margin is less than 0.5%. In fact, in a 51-49 popular vote split, there is virtually zero probability that the popular vote winner would lose in the Electoral College. In 2000, Gore won the national vote by 0.5% and would have won Florida if all the votes were counted. Unfortunately, the Supreme Court stopped the recount and voted 5-4 for Bush.

A third method tracks the individual state polls. The focus of this method is to predict the electoral vote spread. Ten to twenty tight battleground states usually hold the key to the election.

In the Election Model, methods two and three are used. Polls have been pretty good indicators, provided they are current and unbiased.

The Model uses national and state polls as the basis for the projections. The only projection assumption is in the allocation of undecided/other voters. Historically, undecided voters have split at least 2-1 for the challenger. The Model projects 60% will vote for Kerry as a base case assumption. So if a poll has the race tied at 45- 45, then Kerrys is considered to be leading by 51-49, since he will receive 60% of the remaining 10%.

One advantage of national polling is its relative simplicity and point spread

focus. If the spread exceeds the polling margin of error (MoE), typically +/-3% for polls of 1000 sample size, then based on statistical theory, the leader has a 95% chance of winning the election - assuming a) the election was held that day and b) poll is an unbiased sample of the actual voting population.

But that is just the probability for a single poll. If we consider three polls, or equivalently, a single poll of 3000 samples, the MoE tightens to +/-1.80%. Assuming that the average split is 52-48%, there is a 95% probability that the leader will receive between 50.2% and 53.8%. If we add the 2.5% probability that he will exceed 53.8%, then he has a 97.5% probability of winning at least 50.2% of the vote.

Now lets consider fifteen polls. Here the MOE is a very tight +/-0.80% confidence interval. For the same 52-48 % average spread, the probability is 95% that the leader will receive between 51.2% and 52.8% of the popular vote. The probability that the leader will exceed 50% of the national vote is 99.99+%. If the leader has an average 52%-48% lead in 15 national polls the day before the election, then an election defeat will be extremely unlikely. In fact the odds would be less than one in a thousand.

The 95% confidence interval around the mean is derived from the MOE. The MOE is 1.96 times the standard deviation, which is a statistical measure of the variability of polling observations. The standard deviation, along with the 2-party poll ratio, is input to the normal distribution (the bell-shaped curve) in order to determine the probability of winning a majority of the vote in the national (2) and state models.

But an electoral vote majority (270), not the popular vote, is the magic number. To calculate the expected EV from state polling data, we calculate the probability of winning each state and then apply the popular Monte Carlosimulation method. State polls typically sample 500-600, so the MOE is wider (+/-4%) than the 3% MOE in National polls. Just like in the National model, the probability of winning each state is calculated based on the state polling spread, adjusted for the same allocation of undecided/other voters.

In the case of a 50-50 poll split, assuming undecided voters are allocated equally, each candidate has a 50% probability of winning the state. If the split is 60-40, the probability that the leader will win the state is 99.99%. If the polling split is 51-49, the leader has a 69% chance of winning the election. For 52-48, the probability is 83%. Its 97% for a 53-47 split (outside the MOE).

So this is how we determine the probability of winning the election: In a Monte Carlosimulation, we run 5000 simulated election trials to determine the probability of winning 270 Electoral Votes. The probability is the number of election trial wins divided by 5000.

In each state trial run, the model generates a random number (RND) between 0 and 1. The RND determines who wins the state. For example, if the RND generated for FL is .55 and Kerry has a .60 probability of winning the state, then he wins the state in this trial since the RND fell in the interval from 0 to 0.60. If the RND is greater than .60, then FL would go to Bush in this trial run. In this fashion, the model proceeds to generate an RND for each state, assigning its electoral votes (EV) to the winner. The total number of electoral votes calculated for each of the 5000 election trials. If Kerry wins 4900, then he has a 98% probability (4900/5000) of winning the election. The model also calculates Kerrys expected (mean) electoral vote by averaging his EV totals in the 5000 trials.

An advantage of the simulation approach is that it minimizes poll whiplash (slight changes in state polling which causes the leader to change. This will not affect the total expected EV as much it would if we assigned ALL of the electoral votes to the leader, even if he was ahead by just 0.5%.

Using national and state models has another advantage: it provides a mathematical confirmation between the two methods. If the results differ, it could mean that the state polls are more current than the nationals, or that the accuracy of the state or national polling data (or both) is questionable. That is why the model uses 18 national and 51 state polls. This reduces the margin of error, so that we have more confidence in the results.

A final word, one that cannot be over-emphasized: The Election Model calculates the PROBABILITY of a Kerry win. It does not PREDICT a Kerry win.

The Election Model AVERAGES the latest national and state polls, then ADJUSTS the averages by ADDING an ASSUMED undecided voter allocation, and APPLIES statistical theory, based on the number of polls and the average MOE, to determine the PROBABILITY of winning the election.

www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

TruthIsAll
Exposing the Myths: One by One

The naysayers have been very prolific myth promoters.

But we keep knocking them out with the facts.
Now they are left with rBr, the Mother of All Feeble Liepothesis Myths, which is being thoroughly debunked by USCV and informed DUers.

Here's a timeline of threads which refute the myths.

Myth:
The Final National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) said Bush won.
Of course it did. Mitofsky matched the final 613 respondents to the corrupt recorded votes. The first 13047 respondents said they voted for Kerry. As did the first 11027 and the first 8349.

Final National Exit Poll
2:05pm Nov 3, 13660 Respondents
www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

12:22am Nov 3, 13047
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=265121

7:38pm Nov 2, 11027
http://www.exitpollz.org/CNN_national2.htm
3:59pm Nov 2, 8349
www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

Myth: Bush won.
If he did, then you must disregard these facts...
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368702

Myth: rBr is a valid hypothesis
But PROBABILITY ANALYSIS showed that it is VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE.
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368977

Myth: Bush voters forgot who they voted for in 2004
Freeper Logic: aBr, the Alzheimer Bush Responder Hypothesis
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368831

Myth: Bush voters were reluctant
But even if 15% of Gore voters stayed home and All Bush voters came to the polls, Kerry still won.
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368350

Myth: There is no hard evidence of fraud
The probability that 86 of 88 touch screens would switch Kerry votes to Bush is 1 in 79 SEXTILLION:
1 IN 79,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368585

And here is the evidence:
ELECTION INCIDENT REPORTING SYSTEM (EIRS)
https://voteprotect.org/index.php?display=EIRMapNation&tab=ALL

Myth: There was an invisible campaign to get out the vote
So WHERE DID BUSH FIND THE 13 MILLION VOTES?
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x367638

BYE, BYE rBr: IMPLAUSIBLE VOTER TURNOUT SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x367600

Myth: There was fraud, but not enough to change the election outcome
Let's compare Our Evidence vs. Their Evidence
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=366974

Myth: Bush voters were reluctant exit poll responders.
But Mitofskys data shows that they werent shy at all.
The Reluctant Gore Responder (RGR)
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x365133

Myth: Bush won the Electoral Vote
The State Exit Polls Gender Demographic shows Kerry had 329 EV.
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x364645

Myth: Bush won Ohio
He did? How so? Kerry won every demographic.
HOW KERRY WON OHIO BY 51-48%.
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x364450

Myth: The Final National Exit Poll matched the vote.
It sure did. It matched the final corrupted vote.
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE NEP TIMELINE
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x363938

Myth: The national and state exit polls are not conclusive.
But they are in agreement.
THE 13047 NATIONAL EXIT POLL CONFIRMS THE STATE EXIT POLLS TO WITHIN .06%
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x362208

Myth: The early exit polls were unweighted.
Well, lets weight them and see what we get.
STATE / NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS BY REGION
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x362106

Myth: Exit Polls have a wide MoE due to the cluster effect.
No, according to this Mitofsky polling error table:
The MoE is 1.0% once you get to 8000 respondents.
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=357345

Myth: Bush is a popular war president.
He is? Then why is he struggling with 43% approval?
Bush Exit Poll Job Approval: A smoking gun?
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=359320

Myth: The media would cover election fraud - if there was evidence.
But they have already it. And they won't release t.
U.S. General Election Poll-7:37pm: "Estimates NOT for on-air use"
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=359287

Myth: Bush won Florida
Sure, Jebby controls the Optiscans.
FL Optiscans vs. Touchscreens: Prob of 9% discrepancy (1 in 12.7 trillion)
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x358495

Myth: Exit poll sample-sizes were too low.
No, sir. Calculate the sample-size for any MoE and confidence level.
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x356832

Myth: there was a late-voter Bush bandwagon effect.
But Kerry won the late, undecided voters.
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x354407

Myth: Bush 2000 voters were motivated.
To come out in the numbers they did, they must have been very motivated to rise from their graves or materialize out of thin air.
RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER OR REINCARNATED BUSH RESPONDER?
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x352359

Myth: Voter Party ID changed from 39% Dem/35% Rep to 37%/37%
Another Exit Poll Mystery: Party ID. Can you solve it?
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x352065

Myth: The Final Exit Poll weightings use best available data
I can't stop talking about this one. It's a joke. Even if 100% of Bush 2000 voters WHO WERE STILL ALIVE TO VOTE IN 2004 voted, they could not comprise more than 40% of the 2004 electorate.
THE IMPOSSIBLE 43% Bush / 37% Gore MIX...
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x350713

Myth: Bush won by 3 million votes.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: KERRY WON BY 7 MILLION VOTES
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349275

Myth: Only Mitofsky knows how to weight the data
Well, here you will learn
HOW TO RED-SHIFT THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL IN 6 EASY STEPS...
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=348456

Myth: Bush voters are immortal
BASED ON THE U.S. ANNUAL DEATH RATE OF 8.7 PER 1000..
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x347144

Myth: Exit Poll discrepancies cannot be explained
The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy: Explained
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=344005

Myth: Exit Polls have always been inaccurate
GRAPHS: 1988-2004 Prelim. Nat. Exit Poll to Vote - Trend reversal in 2004
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x341940

Myth: All polls are worthless.
Tell that to all the pollsters who get paid the big bucks.
PRE-ELECTION STATE POLLS vs. EXIT POLLS vs. ACTUALS
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=330449

Myth: Bush won.
THE MOST DEVASTATING STATISTIC: 17% OF THE VOTERS WERE NEW
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=323939

Myth: The The conservative trend won it for Bush.
Ok, lets look at some scenarios of Bush probabilities for various Party-ID weights in the National Exit Poll
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=287175

THE MOST DEVASTATING STATISTIC OF ALL: 17% OF THE VOTERS WERE NEW
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=323939

 IT'S THE BIGGEST SMOKING GUN OF ALL.Here's the unbelievable stat - right out of the National ExitPoll:  SEVENTEEN (17) PERCENT of ALL 2004 voters were NEWvoters.They chose KERRY by a 3-2 margin (59%-39%).Using the 2000 voter mix as weights:Kerry 50.90%, Bush 47.09%, Other 1.19%.................VOTED FOR.........WEIGHTED CALCULATION2000    Mix     Bush    Kerry   Nader   Bush    Kerry   NaderNEW     17%     39%     59%     1%      6.6%    10.0%   0.2%Gore    38%     8%      91%     1%      3.0%    34.6%   0.4%Bush    41%     90%     9%      0%      36.9%   3.7%    0.0%Other   4%      13%     65%     16%     0.5%    2.6%    0.6%        100%                            47.09% 50.90%   1.19%These are the official tallies:Bush    62,028,194      50.732%Kerry   59,027,612      48.277%The Probability that Bush would go from 47.09% in the exitpoll to 50.73% in the vote: 1 in 2,043,375,511,511That's 1 in 2 TRILLION.See for yourself. Enter this formula into a spreadsheet cell:Prob = 1 -BINOMDIST(.5073,.4709,.01/1.96,TRUE)The National Exit Poll margin of error was 1.0% according toMitofsky/Edison.Now let's calculate the total votes.1) In 2000, 104 million voted:Gore: 50.99 mmBush: 50.45 mmNader: 2.88 mmSo Kerry had a built-in .50 million vote margin.2) In 2004, 122.2 million voted and 17% (20.74 mm) were new.Kerry won 59% (12.4 mm), Bush 39% (8.3 mm).That's a net gain to Kerry of 4.1 million votes.3) Kerry won 65% (2 mm) of the 4% who voted for Nader et al.Bush won 13% (0.5 mm).That's a net Kerry gain of 1.5 million votes.Kerry's total net gain: .5 +  4.1 + 1.5 = 6.1 million votes.Assume the other 79% voted as they did in 2000.Then of the 122.2 million total votes, we calculate:Kerry: 63.65 mm (52.08%)Bush:  57.55 mm (47.09%) < EXACTLY THE SAME AS ABOVEOther:   1.0 mm (0.83%)

The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy: Explained

www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=344005

As Mitofsky has stated, exit polls have always been weighted to match the actual vote. Now we know the reasons why. His statement, though literally true, is a canard. In fact, the vote count should be re-weighted to match the exit polls.

Mitofsky would have us believe that the vote counts are correct and therefore preliminary exit poll numbers must be re-weighted to match the actual vote. That's why his final, weighted exit polls match the votes - but they are wrong, because they assume that the vote counts are accurate, which is not true.

The re-weighted exit polls are "correct" only if one defines correct as exactly matching bogus vote counts.

Mitofsky never suggested that the vote counts could be anything but perfect. Yet we know that millions of ballots are spoiled in every election, especially in minority precincts. We learned about that from Greg Palast in Florida 2000.

We must assume that if the final exit polls are weighted to match bogus vote counts, then the preliminary exit polls (like the 2004 NEP of 13,047) must be very accurate indeed. In fact, Mitofsky/ Edison claim that the preliminary 13,047 WP poll was accurate to within a 1% MOE.

Looking at the last five elections, the preliminary exit polls, which reflect the true intent of the voter, have been "re-weighted" to match bogus vote counts. And it's always the Democrats who lose the majority of the spoiled votes. As many as 4-5 million are estimated to be spoiled, of which probably more than 75% are Democratic votes.

www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=341940

Let's assume that of 4 million spoiled ballots, 3 million are Democratic, 1 million Repub. That's 2 million net votes lost to the Dems, or 2% of 100 million votes. In a close election, it makes all the difference.

But we have not even considered BBV, the 21st century equivalent of a punch card undervote/ overvote - but without a paper trail to recount. We can therefore conclude that, in the last 5 elections, the preliminary Democratic exit polls exceeded the actual votes by 2-4% - and were very close to the true intent of the voter.

The NEP/WP site displays the pristine National exit poll of 13,047 respondents. The demographic category weights indicate a 51-48% Kerry victory, confirmed by state exit polls which showed Kerry winning most of the battleground states, including Ohio and Florida.

The 2004 preliminary (13,074 respondents) PartyID mix of 38/35/27 matched the final exit poll (39/35/ 27) in 1996-2000. The fact that this was changed to 37/37/26 in the final (13,660) NEP poll is what we used to call finagling - or cooking the books- to match the Bush 51-48% tally. THAT IS A MAJOR SMOKING GUN.

BUT SMOKING GUN #1 IS STILL THE 21 MILLION NEW VOTERS WHICH KERRY WON BY 59-39%. THERE IS NO WAY IN HELL KERRY COULD HAVE LOST, SINCE HE STARTED WITH A MAJORITY BASE OF DEMOCRATIC VOTERS TO BEGIN WITH.

The argument the naysayers and even so-called Democratic polling bloggers have used, that the exit polls are not random samples and that the votes counts must be 100% correct, is logically and factually false, by definition. On the contrary, we know that the recorded votes do not include those lost to ballot spoilage or machine "glitches", 99% of which favored Bush.

We must therefore conclude that Dukakis, Clinton, Gore and Kerry all did better than the vote counts indicated, because millions of their votes were spoiled ballots - not to mention the unknown number stolen in cyberspace.

And finally, what about those who were disenfranchised by corrupt Secretaries of State, who never had the chance to vote and exit- polled?

So that's it.
The unexplained exit poll discrepancy - explained.

---

GRAPHS: 1988-2004 Prelim. Nat. Exit Poll to Vote- Trend reversal in 2004

Preliminary exit polls vs. Recorded Votes: 1988-2004

Notice the 2004 trend reversal.
Any relation to the new touchscreens with no verified paper ballot?

Deviation Trends: Preliminary Exit Poll to Final Vote
www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/5elections_15620_image002.png

Surprise: Preliminary Exit Poll was right on for Gore in 2000
Democratic Deviations from Preliminary Exit Poll to Final Vote
www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/5elections_15620_image001.png

No Surprise: Repubs always gain in the vote; Dems always lose.
Republican Deviations from Preliminary Exit Poll to Final Vote
www.geocities.com/electionmodel/electionmodel_files/5elections_15620_image003.png

 Prelim Exit Poll Final Vote DeviationYear   Dem   Rep   Dem   Rep   Dem   Rep1988   50.3  49.7  46    54    -4.3  4.31992   46    33.2  43    38    -3    4.81996   52.2  37.5  49    41    -3.2  3.52000   48.5  46.2  48.4  47.9  -0.1  1.72004   50.74 47.93 48.28 50.73 -2.46 2.8Avg    49.55 42.91 46.94 46.33 -2.61 3.42

Naysayer Hobson's Choice: Final NEP or rBr? Take your pick.
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x380085

Let's continue our discussion of the 43%/37% Bush/Gore weighting split in the How Voted in 2000 demographic of the Final National Exit Poll. Bush won the poll (and the vote) by 51-48%.

To review, according to the poll, 43% of all 2004 voters were former Bush 2000 voters and 37% of 2004 voters were former Gore voters.

Gore won the popular vote in 2000 by 50.999mm to 50.456 million for Bush.

Some, but not all of you have stipulated to the mathematical fact that for 43% of 2004 voters to have been Bush 2000 voters was an impossibility, since 43% of the 122.3 million who voted in 2004 is 52.59 million. And yet we know that Bush only got 50.456 million votes in 2000.

So now you have a choice:

1) You can argue, against all mathematical logic, that the final national exit poll was correct; that 43% is a valid weighting multiplier for Bush and 37% is a valid weighting multiplier for Kerry. And therefore the Final Exit Poll correctly matched to the recorded vote count, as reflected by the 51-48% Bush exit poll win.

or

2) You can continue to hypothesize the reluctant Bush responder theory. Of course, by doing so, you must reject the 43%/37% split, since that weighting mix implies that Bush 2000 voters outnumbered Gore 2000 voters by a whopping six percent margin.

So which is it?

Do you claim that Bush won the final exit poll (13660 respondents) and that the 43%/37% split (although mathematically impossible) is still a valid weighting mix?

Or do you reject the final exit poll and promote the rBr hypothesis as a possible explanation for the exit poll discrepancies?

You cannot have it both ways.
Take your pick.

43/37 vs. rBr.
Impossible vs. implausible.

*******************************************************
HERE ARE THE 13047 AND 13660 HOW VOTED IN 2000 WEIGHTS AND PERCENTAGES

The maximum possible percentage of Bush 2000 voters who could have voted in 2004 is 39.82%.

Bush 2000 voters: 50.456 million
Bush 2000 voters still alive = 48.69mm

Total 2004 voters: 122.3 mm.

Maximum Bush 2000 voters as a percentage of Total 2004 voters: Bush 2000/Total 2004 = 48.69/122.3 = 39.82%
The same calculation for Gore voters = 40.25%

Now lets look at the National Exit Poll:

Who did you vote for in 2000?

 SCENARIO I:13047 respondents: 12:22amKerry wins easily- even with an IMPLAUSIBLE 41% Bush/39% Goresplit        Mix   Bush      Kerry   Nader   Bush    Kerry   NaderNo      17%     41%     57%     2%      7.0%    9.7%    0.3%Gore    39%     8%      91%     1%      3.1%    35.5%   0.4%Bush    41%     90%     10%     0%      36.9%   4.1%    0.0%Other   3%      13%     65%     16%     0.4%    2.0%    0.5%        100%                            47.38%  51.23%  1.21%Probability of Bush going from 47.38% (poll) to 50.73%(vote):  1 in 38,498,885,514*********************************************SCENARIO II:Final Exit Poll (1:25pm)- 13660 respondents:BUSH WINS, even though 43% is MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE      MIX   Bush    Kerry   Nader   Bush    Kerry   NaderNO    17%   45%     54%     1%      7.7%    9.2%    0.2%Gore  37%   10%     90%     1%      3.7%    33.3%   0.4%Bush  43%   91%     9%      0%      39.1%   3.9%    0.0%Other  3%   21%     71%     8%      0.6%    2.1%    0.2%      100%                          51.11%  48.48%  0.78%***********************************************PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO III:Using maximum possible Bush/Gore turnout weightings based on2000 voters still alive to vote in 2004 (122.3mm totalvotes), Kerry wins in a  landslide:Kerry       63.89mm (52.24%)Bush        56.77   (46.42%)Nader/Other 1.49    (1.22%)        Mix     Bush    Kerry   Nader   Bush    Kerry   NaderNo      17.00%  41%     57%     2%      7.0%    9.7%    0.3%Gore    40.24%  8%      91%     1%      3.2%    36.6%   0.4%Bush    39.82%  90%     10%     0%      35.8%   4.0%    0.0%Other   3.00%   13%     65%     16%     0.4%    2.0%    0.5%        100%                            46.42%  52.24%  1.22%

The EAST was the BEAST: Time Zone Exit Poll Discrepancy Analysis

www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=318693&mesg_id=318693

This is an Exit Poll Analysis by Time Zone, using Freeman's
data converted to the 2-party equivalent.

The vast bulk of the damage was done in the East.

Eastern:
ALL 23 states deviated to Bush by an average of 2.77%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 8,388,608

12 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 16 Trillion

Central:
11 of 16 states deviated to Bush by an average of 2.08%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 10

3 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 146

Mountain:
6 of 7 states deviated to Bush by an average of 2.18%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 16

None deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 1.2 (84%)

Pacific:
3 of 5 states deviated to Bush by an average of 1.99%
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 2

1 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 8

       Poll  Poll  Std   Exit  Final Vote   Dev    Odds  Dev   Dev/  Dev/ Dev> Bush      St    Size  MoE   Dev   Poll  Vote   Dev    Prob 1in    Favor Std  MoE  MoeEasternNH    1849  2.33% 1.19% 55.50 50.68 -4.81% 0.0%   39823 Bush  -4.05 2.07 yesNY    1452  2.62% 1.34% 63.97 58.79 -5.17% 0.0%   17833 Bush  -3.86 1.97 yesSC    1735  2.40% 1.22% 45.79 41.31 -4.48% 0.0%   7851  Bush  -3.66 1.87 yesNC    2167  2.15% 1.10% 47.31 43.72 -3.60% 0.1%   1939  Bush  -3.28 1.67 yesOH    1963  2.26% 1.15% 52.06 48.75 -3.31% 0.2%   495   Bush  -2.88 1.47 yes  yesPA    1930  2.28% 1.16% 54.41 51.13 -3.28% 0.2%   420   Bush  -2.82 1.44 yesVT    685   3.82% 1.95% 65.69 60.34 -5.35% 0.3%   330   Bush  -2.74 1.40 yesFL    2846  1.87% 0.96% 49.93 47.47 -2.46% 0.5%   199   Bush  -2.57 1.31 yes  yesDE    770   3.60% 1.84% 58.44 53.82 -4.62% 0.6%   167   Bush  -2.51 1.28 yesNJ    1520  2.56% 1.31% 56.13 53.13 -3.00% 1.1%   91    Bush  -2.29 1.17 yesMA    889   3.35% 1.71% 66.46 62.70 -3.76% 1.4%   72    Bush  -2.20 1.12 yesRI    809   3.52% 1.79% 64.24 60.48 -3.76% 1.8%   55    Bush  -2.09 1.07 yesCT    872   3.39% 1.73% 58.47 55.24 -3.24% 3.0%   33    Bush  -1.87 0.96NV    2116  2.17% 1.11% 50.66 48.67 -1.99% 3.6%   28    Bush  -1.80 0.92      yesVA    1431  2.64% 1.35% 47.96 45.65 -2.31% 4.3%   23    Bush  -1.71 0.87WV    1722  2.41% 1.23% 45.19 43.48 -1.72% 8.1%   12    Bush  -1.40 0.71GA    1536  2.55% 1.30% 43.11 41.58 -1.53% 12.0%  8     Bush  -1.17 0.60IN    926   3.29% 1.68% 40.97 39.46 -1.51% 18.3%  5     Bush  -0.90 0.46MI    2452  2.02% 1.03% 52.55 51.73 -0.82% 21.4%  5     Bush  -0.79 0.40DC    795   3.55% 1.81% 91.63 90.63 -1.00% 29.0%  3     Bush  -0.55 0.28MD    1000  3.16% 1.61% 57.04 56.25 -0.79% 31.2%  3     Bush  -0.49 0.25KY    1034  3.11% 1.59% 40.76 39.99 -0.76% 31.6%  3     Bush  -0.48 0.24ME    1968  2.25% 1.15% 54.83 54.48 -0.36% 37.9%  3     Bush  -0.31 0.16CentralMN    2178  2.14% 1.09% 54.61 51.76 -2.85% 0.5%   218   Bush  -2.61 1.33 yesNE    785   3.57% 1.82% 36.54 32.53 -4.01% 1.4%   72    Bush  -2.20 1.12 yesAL    730   3.70% 1.89% 41.08 37.08 -4.00% 1.7%   59    Bush  -2.12 1.08 yesMS    798   3.54% 1.81% 43.20 39.91 -3.30% 3.4%   29    Bush  -1.83 0.93AR    1402  2.67% 1.36% 46.93 44.74 -2.19% 5.4%   19    Bush  -1.61 0.82IL    1392  2.68% 1.37% 57.13 54.99 -2.14% 5.9%   17    Bush  -1.56 0.80LA    1669  2.45% 1.25% 44.50 42.63 -1.87% 6.7%   15    Bush  -1.50 0.76IA    2502  2.00% 1.02% 50.67 49.54 -1.13% 13.4%  7     Bush  -1.11 0.56     yesMO    2158  2.15% 1.10% 47.48 46.33 -1.15% 14.8%  7     Bush  -1.05 0.53OK    1539  2.55% 1.30% 34.73 34.44 -0.29% 41.2%  2     Bush  -0.22 0.11WI    2223  2.12% 1.08% 50.21 50.20 -0.02% 49.4%  2     Bush  -0.01 0.01TN    1774  2.37% 1.21% 41.15 42.78 1.63%  9.0%   11    Kerry 1.34  0.69TX    1671  2.45% 1.25% 36.84 38.49 1.65%  9.3%   11    Kerry 1.32  0.68SD    1495  2.59% 1.32% 37.42 39.09 1.67%  10.3%  10    Kerry 1.27  0.65ND    649   3.93% 2.00% 33.58 36.09 2.51%  10.5%  10    Kerry 1.25  0.64KS    654   3.91% 2.00% 34.60 36.97 2.37%  11.8%  9     Kerry 1.19  0.61MountainCO    2515  1.99% 1.02% 49.07 47.35 -1.72% 4.5%   22    Bush  -1.69 0.86NM    1951  2.26% 1.16% 51.34 49.42 -1.93% 4.8%   21    Bush  -1.67 0.85     yesUT    798   3.54% 1.81% 29.93 27.06 -2.87% 5.6%   18    Bush  -1.59 0.81AZ    1859  2.32% 1.18% 46.60 45.03 -1.57% 9.2%   11    Bush  -1.33 0.68ID    559   4.23% 2.16% 33.33 30.71 -2.63% 11.2%  9     Bush  -1.22 0.62WY    684   3.82% 1.95% 32.07 29.70 -2.37% 11.2%  9     Bush  -1.21 0.62MT    640   3.95% 2.02% 39.28 39.51 0.22%  45.6%  2     Kerry 0.11  0.06PacificAK    910   3.31% 1.69% 40.14 36.17 -3.97% 0.9%   106   Bush  -2.35 1.20 yesWA    2123  2.17% 1.11% 55.07 53.60 -1.47% 9.2%   11    Bush  -1.33 0.68CA    1919  2.28% 1.16% 55.73 55.21 -0.53% 32.6%  3     Bush  -0.45 0.23OR    1064  3.07% 1.56% 51.22 51.97 0.75%  31.7%  3     Kerry 0.48  0.24HI    499   4.48% 2.28% 53.32 54.37 1.05%  32.2%  3     Kerry 0.46  0.24      Poll  Poll  Std   Exit  Final Vote   Dev    Odds  Dev   Dev/  Dev/ Dev> Bush            Size  MoE   Dev   Poll  Vote   Dev    Prob 1in    Favor Std  MoE  MoETotalAvg   1,443 2.85% 1.46% 48.84 47.00 -1.84% 10.34% 10          -1.33 0.83Med   1,495 2.59% 1.32% 49.07 47.35 -1.93% 6.73%  15          -1.50 0.76Bavg  1516  2.75% 1.40% 49.55 47.58 -1.97% 9.90%  10    43    -1.45 0.88 16  5Kavg  1050  3.41% 1.74% 45.02 43.90 -1.12% 21.84% 5     8     -0.69 0.48 1   0Region (Deviations are for Bush alone)East  1499  2.75% 1.40% 54.92 52.15 -2.77% 8.99%  3017  23    -2.02 1.03 12  3Cent  1580  2.69% 1.37% 46.10 44.01 -2.08% 13.08% 41    11    -1.44 0.73 3   1Mount 1394  3.03% 1.55% 40.39 38.21 -2.18% 7.76%  15    6     -1.45 0.74 0   1Pac   1651  2.59% 1.32% 50.31 48.32 -1.99% 14.26% 40    3     -1.38 0.70 1   0

2-3 MILLION LOST KERRY VOTES? CENSUS: 125.7MM; RECORDED : 122.3MM!
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x372831

Edited on Thu May-26-05 09:21 PM by TruthIsAll

"The data are from the November 2004 Voting and Registration Supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS). Statistics from surveys are subject to sampling and nonsampling error. The CPS estimate of overall turnout (125.7 million) differs from the official turnout, as reported by the Clerk of the House (122.3 million)."
www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/voting/004986.html

www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/voting/cps2004.html

So 122.3 million voted and a couple of million LIED to the census taker?
And the rest of the discrepancy was due to sampling error?
They would like you to believe that.
The FACT of spoiled votes is never even considered.

It was all due to the Lying Census Responder (lCr).
Right.

Could it simply be that 125.7mm VOTED and 3.4 million votes were NEVER COUNTED, WHICH WE KNOW IS WHAT HAPPENS IN EVERY ELECTION?

Millions of DEMOCRATIC votes are spoiled in minority precincts.
These people thought they voted for Kerry.
You would think the Dems would learn by now.
No, they WANT to lose.

The 2.70% discrepancy (3.4/125.7) is NOT due to people lying.
This explanation is just another canard, a corollary of the fictional Reluctant Bush Responder. Now we have the Lying Census Responder Liepothesis.

The discrepancy dovetails with what we already from the exit polls:
Kerry:63mm + 2mm lost = 65mm (52.0%)
Bush: 58mm + 1mm lost = 59mm (47.2%)
Other: 1mm = 1mm (0.8%)

And that's being conservative.

---

HOW KERRY WON OHIO BY 51-48%...
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x364450

Well, by winning the majority of virtually every
demographic...
The RBRs must have stayed home.

If you believe the Exit Poll, Kerry won OH by 160,000 votes.
If you believe the Vote, Bush won by 119,000 votes.

If Kerry won this solid Republican state by 51-48%, you just
KNOW he had to do 1-2% better nationally.

Which means he won the election by 6-8 million votes.

 OHIO EXIT POLL1,963 RespondentsUpdated: 12:21 a.m.CATEGORY      BUSH      KERRYGENDER        47.94%    52.06%RACE/GENDER   47.99%    51.01%RACE          47.86%    50.14%AGE           48.31%    51.39%INCOME        45.91%    51.62%EDUCATION     48.77%    50.94%PARTY ID      47.18%    51.20%IDEOLOGY      48.03%    50.97%VOTED BEFORE  49.30%    50.70%RELIGION      49.08%    50.66%WHENDECIDED   48.22%    49.68%BUSH JOB      48.42%    49.10%COMMUNITY 1   48.94%    51.68%COMMUNITY 2   48.42%    51.33%REGION        48.58%    52.07%VOTE SENATE   48.04%    51.96%AVERAGE       48.19%    51.03%VOTES         2.711     2.871ACTUAL        50.82%    48.71%VOTES         2.859     2.740MoE           2.21%PROB          1 IN    106GENDER        BUSH      KERRYMale    47%   49%       51%Female  53%   47%       53%        100%  47.94%    52.06%RACE/GENDERWM      40%   53%       47%WF      45%   53%       47%NWM     6%    25%       75%NWF     8%    18%       82%        99%   47.99%    51.01%RACEWhite   86%   53%       47%Black   9%    16%       84%Latino  3%    28%       72%Asian   1%    *         *Other   1%    *         *        100%  47.86%    50.14%AGE18-29   21%   40%       60%30-44   30%   49%       50%45-59   29%   49%       51%60-     20%   55%       45%        100%  48.31%    51.39%INCOME0-15    7%    27%       73%15-30   16%   34%       66%30-50   25%   46%       53%50-75   22%   55%       44%75-100  15%   50%       50%100-150 9%    56%       44%150-200 4%    61%       39%200-    2%    *         *        100%  45.91%    51.62%EDUCATIONNoHS    4%    40%       60%HSGrad  29%   46%       53%College 28%   50%       50%ColGrad 25%   53%       47%Postgrd 14%   47%       53%        100%  48.77%    50.94%PARTY IDDem     38%   8%        91%Rep     37%   94%       6%Ind     24%   39%       60%        99%   47.18%    51.20%IDEOLOGYLib     21%   13%       87%Mod     47%   39%       61%Con     31%   87%       13%        99%   48.03%    50.97%VOTED BEFORE?No      14%   45%       55%Yes     86%   50%       50%        100%  49.30%    50.70%RELIGIONProt    57%   54%       46%Cath    26%   53%       46%Jewish  1%    *         *Other   6%    24%       76%None    11%   28%       72%        101%  49.08%    50.66%WHEN DECIDEDToday   5%    40%       60%3Days   4%    36%       64%Week    2%    *         *Month   10%   37%       62%Before  79%   52%       48%        100%  48.22%    49.68%HOW BUSH IS HANDLING HIS JOBApprove 50%   93%       7%Disap   48%   4%        95%        98%   48.42%    49.10%SIZE OF COMMUNITYBCities 7%    49%       50%SmCity  19%   38%       62%Suburbs 50%   49%       51%SmTowns 6%    43%       55%Rural   19%   59%       40%        101%  48.94%    51.68%SIZE OF COMMUNITYUrban   26%   41%       59%Suburb  49%   49%       51%Rural   25%   55%       44%        100%  48.42%    51.33%REGIONCuya    13%   35%       65%NE      27%   45%       55%Cent    23%   52%       47%NW      12%   49%       50%SW      26%   54%       46%        101%  48.58%    52.07%VOTE FOR U.S. SENATEDem     43%   7%        93%Rep     57%   79%       21%        100%  48.04%    51.96%

STATE / NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS BY REGION
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x362106

  SUMMARY REGIONAL STATE EXIT POLL STATISTICSNote:Vote = actual vote in thousandsSize = State exit poll sample sizeZ    = Bush Z-score (standard deviations from the mean)MoE    = margin of ErrorStDev  = standard deviation from the meanPoll(p)= Kerry's exit poll percentageVote   = Kerry's vote percentageDev    = Poll - Vote spreadProb   = Probability of deviation based on Z-scoreFormulas:Stdev  = sqrt(p*(1-p)/n)MoE    = 1.96* StDevZ      = Dev/ StDevProb = 1 - NORMSDIST(Z)Regional Z-scores are approximated by averaging the states.Kerry deviated from 59.60% in the East (using state exit polldata) to 56.09% in the vote, the largest regional deviation.Region  Z     Vote    Size    MoE     StDev   Poll    Vote    Dev     Prob 1 inEAST    2.22  26854   16261   2.75%   1.40%   59.60   56.09   -3.51%  9.49E-13MIDWEST 1.87  30676   19377   2.61%   1.33%   50.28   48.68   -1.60%  3.60E-03SOUTH   1.81  39034   20332   2.56%   1.31%   43.75   42.33   -1.42%  1.41E-06WEST    1.26  24491   17637   2.91%   1.49%   51.81   50.87   -0.94%  2.86E-07TOTAL   1.79  121055  73607   2.71%   1.38%   50.55   48.72   -1.82%......................................................These are the probabilities that Bush would exceed the givenZ-score and the number of states it was exceeded in eachregion, based on the deviation from the exit poll to thevote:EAST    Z> 2.23 in 8 of 13 states = 1 in 1,053,596,824,745MIDWEST Z> 1.07 in 6 of 12 states = 1 in 278SOUTH   Z> 1.21 in 9 of 13 states = 1 in 709,051WEST    Z> 1.32 in 9 of 13 states = 1 in 3,500,172The Probability is calculated using the Excel BinomialDistribution function:Prob   = 1- BINOMDIST (n-1, N, p(Z), True)Where n= number of states in the region in which Z>X,  and N= total number of states in the region.p(Z) = probability of the deviation between the vote and exitpoll as measured by the Z-score in X standard deviations.p(Z=X) = 1 - NORMSDIST(X)True = Cumulative distribution parameter................................................NATIONAL EXIT POLL - 13047 RESPONDENTSBASED ON NEP REGIONAL WEIGHTINGKerry wins by 50.53-47.95%Region  Pct  Bush    Kerry   NaderEAST    22%  41%     58%     1%MIDWEST 26%  49%     50%     1%SOUTH   31%  54%     44%     1%WEST    21%  45%     53%     1%TOTAL   100% 47.95%  50.53%  1.0%Votes        58046   61169   1211..................................................CALCULATION OF REGIONAL WEIGHTSUSING TOTAL VOTE & STATE EXIT POLL DATAThe South had a 27.62% weighting in the 13047 National ExitPoll but was 32.24% of the vote, a very odd occurrence.Region    Vote  Pct     Exit    Pct     Bush  1 inEAST     26854  22.18%  16261   22.09%  1,053,596,824,745MIDWEST  30676  25.34%  19377   26.32%  278SOUTH    39034  32.24%  20332   27.62%  709,051WEST     24491  20.23%  17637   23.96%  3,500,172TOTAL    121055 100.0%  73607   100.0%......................................................STATE EXIT POLL REGIONAL WEIGHTSAPPLIED TO NATIONAL EXIT POLL 13047Kerry wins by 50.83-47.66%Region      Exit      Pct     Bush    Kerry   NaderEAST        16261     22.09%  6667    9431    163MIDWEST     19377     26.32%  9495    9689    194SOUTH       20332     27.62%  10979   8946    203WEST        17637     23.96%  7937    9348    176TOTAL       73607     100.0%  35078   37414   736                              47.66%  50.83%  1.00%..................................................FINAL RECORDED VOTE REGIONAL WEIGHTSAPPLIED TO NATIONAL EXIT POLL 13047Kerry wins by 50.45-48.03%Region        Vote     Pct     Bush    Kerry   NaderEAST          26854    22.18%  11010   15575   269MIDWEST       30676    25.34%  15031   15338   307SOUTH         39034    32.24%  21078   17175   390WEST          24491    20.23%  11021   12980   245TOTAL         121055   100.0%  58141   61069   1211                               48.03%  50.45%  1.00%...........................................................STATE EXIT POLL AND VOTE STATISTICS BY REGIONZ      = Z-scoreVotes  = votes in thousandsSize(n)= state exit poll sample sizeMoE    = margin of ErrorStDev  = standard deviation from the meanPoll(P)= Kerry's exit poll percentageVote   = Kerry's vote percentageDev    = Poll - Vote spreadProb   = Probability of deviation based on Z-scoreFormulas:Stdev  = sqrt(p*(1-p)/n)MoE    = 1.96* StDevZ      = Dev/ StDevProb = 1 - NORMSDIST(Z)Region  Z    Votes Size  MoE   StDev Poll  Vote  Dev    Prob     1 in   ForEASTCT      1.94 1551  872   3.27% 1.67% 58.47 55.24 -3.24% 2.62%    38     BushDC      1.02 372   795   1.92% 0.98% 91.63 90.63 -1.00% 15.40%   6      BushDE      2.60 224   770   3.48% 1.78% 58.44 53.82 -4.62% 0.46%    216    BushMA      2.38 2875  889   3.10% 1.58% 66.46 62.70 -3.76% 0.88%    114    BushMD      0.50 2359  1000  3.07% 1.57% 57.04 56.25 -0.79% 30.71%   3      BushME      0.32 727   1968  2.20% 1.12% 54.83 54.48 -0.36% 37.58%   3      BushNH      4.16 672   1849  2.27% 1.16% 55.50 50.68 -4.81% 0.00%    63547  BushNJ      2.36 3581  1520  2.49% 1.27% 56.13 53.13 -3.00% 0.92%    108    BushNY      4.10 7277  1452  2.47% 1.26% 63.97 58.79 -5.17% 0.00%    49430  BushPA      2.89 5732  1930  2.22% 1.13% 54.41 51.13 -3.28% 0.19%    521    BushRI      2.23 429   809   3.30% 1.69% 64.24 60.48 -3.76% 1.29%    77     BushVT      2.95 305   685   3.56% 1.81% 65.69 60.34 -5.35% 0.16%    628    BushWV      1.43 750   1722  2.35% 1.20% 45.19 43.48 -1.72% 7.61%    13     BushAVG     2.22 26854 16261 2.75% 1.40% 59.60 56.09 -3.51% 9.49E-13 1,053,596,824,745MIDWESTIA      1.13 1494  2502  1.96% 1.00% 50.67 49.54 -1.13% 12.93%   8      BushIL      1.61 5239  1392  2.60% 1.33% 57.13 54.99 -2.14% 5.35%    19     BushIN      0.94 2448  926   3.17% 1.62% 40.97 39.46 -1.51% 17.44%   6      BushKS      1.27 1171  654   3.65% 1.86% 34.60 36.97 2.37%  10.15%   10     KerryMI      0.81 4793  2452  1.98% 1.01% 52.55 51.73 -0.82% 20.89%   5      BushMN      2.67 2792  2178  2.09% 1.07% 54.61 51.76 -2.85% 0.38%    263    BushMO      1.07 2715  2158  2.11% 1.07% 47.48 46.33 -1.15% 14.28%   7      BushND      1.35 308   649   3.63% 1.85% 33.58 36.09 2.51%  8.80%    11     KerryNE      2.33 767   785   3.37% 1.72% 36.54 32.53 -4.01% 0.99%    102    BushOH      2.94 5599  1963  2.21% 1.13% 52.06 48.75 -3.31% 0.17%    602    BushSD      1.34 382   1495  2.45% 1.25% 37.42 39.09 1.67%  9.09%    11     KerryWI      0.01 2968  2223  2.08% 1.06% 50.21 50.20 -0.02% 49.44%   2      BushAVG     1.87 30676 19377 2.61% 1.33% 50.28 48.68 -1.60% 3.60E-03 278SOUTHAL      2.20 1870  730   3.57% 1.82% 41.08 37.08 -4.00% 1.40%    72     BushAR      1.64 1998  1402  2.61% 1.33% 46.93 44.74 -2.19% 5.01%    20     BushFL      2.63 7548  2846  1.84% 0.94% 49.93 47.47 -2.46% 0.43%    231    BushGA      1.21 3280  1536  2.48% 1.26% 43.11 41.58 -1.53% 11.33%   9      BushKY      0.50 1782  1034  3.00% 1.53% 40.76 39.99 -0.76% 30.92%   3      BushLA      1.54 1922  1669  2.38% 1.22% 44.50 42.63 -1.87% 6.22%    16     BushMS      1.88 1130  798   3.44% 1.75% 43.20 39.91 -3.30% 3.00%    33     BushNC      3.35 3487  2167  2.10% 1.07% 47.31 43.72 -3.60% 0.04%    2508   BushOK      0.24 1464  1539  2.38% 1.21% 34.73 34.44 -0.29% 40.59%   2      BushSC      3.75 1600  1735  2.34% 1.20% 45.79 41.31 -4.48% 0.01%    11104  BushTN      1.39 2421  1774  2.29% 1.17% 41.15 42.78 1.63%  8.19%    12     KerryTX      1.40 7360  1671  2.31% 1.18% 36.84 38.49 1.65%  8.08%    12     KerryVA      1.75 3172  1431  2.59% 1.32% 47.96 45.65 -2.31% 4.01%    25     BushAVG     1.81 39034 20332 2.56% 1.31% 43.75 42.33 -1.42% 1.41E-06 709,051WESTAK      2.44 302   910   3.18% 1.62% 40.14 36.17 -3.97% 0.73%    138    BushAZ      1.36 1043  1859  2.27% 1.16% 46.60 45.03 -1.57% 8.75%    11     BushCA      0.46 12255 1919  2.22% 1.13% 55.73 55.21 -0.53% 32.14%   3      BushCO      1.73 2103  2515  1.95% 1.00% 49.07 47.35 -1.72% 4.20%           BushHI      0.47 426   499   4.38% 2.23% 53.32 54.37 1.05%  31.86%   3      KerryID      1.32 590   559   3.91% 1.99% 33.33 30.71 -2.63% 9.39%    11     BushMT      0.12 440   640   3.78% 1.93% 39.28 39.51 0.22%  45.40%   2      KerryNM      1.70 748   1951  2.22% 1.13% 51.34 49.42 -1.93% *4.43%   23     BushNV      1.83 816   2116  2.13% 1.09% 50.66 48.67 -1.99% 3.33%    30     BushOR      0.49 1810  1064  3.00% 1.53% 51.22 51.97 0.75%  31.32%   3      KerryUT      1.77 905   798   3.18% 1.62% 29.93 27.06 -2.87% 3.84%    26     BushWA      1.36 2815  2123  2.12% 1.08% 55.07 53.60 -1.47% 8.69%    12     BushWY      1.33 238   684   3.50% 1.78% 32.07 29.70 -2.37% 9.23%    11     BushAVG     1.26 24491 17637 2.91% 1.49% 51.81 50.87 0.94%  2.86E-07 3,500,172

dzika
Geographic z-Score Map (state exit polls)
Using the z-scores posted above by TIA...



TruthIsAll
STATE EXIT POLL SAMPLE SIZE COMPARED TO VOTING WEIGHT

 Regional Voting Percentages and ZscoresPurpose: To compare state exit poll sample size to actualvote weight.(1) StVote = state vote % of region total(2) StEx = state exit respondents as % of regional total(3) StVote % Exit = (1)/(2)(4) ZS = Z-score (standard deviations from Mean)(5) ZS * (3) = a measure of deviation magnitude        StVote  StEx    StVote          Zs *        %Tot    %Tot    %Exit   Zs      StV%StExEASTCT      5.78%   5.36%   108%    1.94    2.09DC      1.39%   4.89%   28%     1.02    0.29DE      0.83%   4.74%   18%     2.60    0.46MA      10.71%  5.47%   196%    2.38    4.65MD      8.78%   6.15%   143%    0.50    0.72ME      2.71%   12.10%  22%     0.32    0.07NH      2.50%   11.37%  22%     4.16    0.92NJ      13.34%  9.35%   143%    2.36    3.36NY      27.10%  8.93%   303%    4.10    12.46PA      21.35%  11.87%  180%    2.89    5.20RI      1.60%   4.98%   32%     2.23    0.72VT      1.14%   4.21%   27%     2.95    0.80WV      2.79%   10.59%  26%     1.43    0.38Total   100%    100%Avg     22.18%  22.09%  100%    2.22    2.23MIDWESTIA      4.87%   12.91%  38%     1.13    0.43IL      17.08%  7.18%   238%    1.61    3.83IN      7.98%   4.78%   167%    0.94    1.56KS      3.82%   3.38%   113%    1.27    1.44MI      15.62%  12.65%  123%    0.81    1.00MN      9.10%   11.24%  81%     2.67    2.16MO      8.85%   11.14%  79%     1.07    0.85ND      1.00%   3.35%   30%     1.35    0.41NE      2.50%   4.05%   62%     2.33    1.44OH      18.25%  10.13%  180%    2.94    5.29SD      1.25%   7.72%   16%     1.34    0.22WI      9.68%   11.47%  84%     0.01    0.01Total   100%    100%%Total  25.34%  26.32%  96%     1.87    1.80SOUTHAL      4.79%   3.59%   133%    2.20    2.93AR      5.12%   6.90%   74%     1.64    1.22FL      19.34%  14.00%  138%    2.63    3.63GA      8.40%   7.55%   111%    1.21    1.35KY      4.57%   5.09%   90%     0.50    0.45LA      4.92%   8.21%   60%     1.54    0.92MS      2.89%   3.92%   74%     1.88    1.39NC      8.93%   10.66%  84%     3.35    2.81OK      3.75%   7.57%   50%     0.24    0.12SC      4.10%   8.53%   48%     3.75    1.80TN      6.20%   8.73%   71%     1.39    0.99TX      18.86%  8.22%   229%    1.40    3.21VA      8.13%   7.04%   115%    1.75    2.02Total   100%    100%%Total  32.24%  27.62%  117%    1.81    2.11WESTAK      1.23%   5.16%   24%     2.44    0.58AZ      4.26%   10.54%  40%     1.36    0.55CA      50.04%  10.88%  460%    0.46    2.13CO      8.59%   14.26%  60%     1.73    1.04HI      1.74%   2.83%   61%     0.47    0.29ID      2.41%   3.17%   76%     1.32    1.00MT      1.80%   3.63%   50%     0.12    0.06NM      3.05%   11.06%  28%     1.70    0.47NV      3.33%   12.00%  28%     1.83    0.51OR      7.39%   6.03%   123%    0.49    0.60UT      3.70%   4.52%   82%     1.77    1.45WA      11.49%  12.04%  95%     1.36    1.30WY      0.97%   3.88%   25%     1.33    0.33Total   100%    100%%Total  20.23%  23.96%  84%     1.26    1.06Exit sample weightEAST    22.18%  22.09%  100%    2.22    2.23MIDWT   25.34%  26.32%  96%     1.87    1.80SOUTH   32.24%  27.62%  117%    1.81    2.11WEST    20.23%  23.96%  84%     1.26    1.06Total   100.0%  100.0%

dzika
"STATE EXIT POLL SAMPLE SIZE COMPARED TO VOTING WEIGHT" MAP

THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: KERRY WON BY 7 MILLION VOTES
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349275

Here are FIVE REALISTIC scenarios based on LIVE voter turnout.

A significant finding is this:
Regardless of whether 100%, 99%, 98% or 97% of 2000 voters returned to the polls, the Kerry winning margin hardly
changes (it increases by 18,000 votes for each 1% decline).
So the percentage turnout factor is of minimal effect.
However, the voter turnout MIX is THE MAJOR FACTOR IN THE WIDE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE TOTALLY UNREALISTIC AND MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE FINAL EXIT POLL (13660) AND THE REALISTIC AND VERY PLAUSIBLE PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL (13047).

Using the 13660 final exit poll, after adjusting from a mathematically impossible mix (43 Bush/37% Gore) to a very plausible one (39.82/40.25%), then Kerry wins by 3.21 million votes (51%-48.4%), EXACTLY REVERSING the NEP conclusion that Bush won by 3.22 million.

Using the 13047 preliminary exit poll weights, Kerry wins by 7 million votes (52%-46.5%).

  The Five Scenario Summary:Turnout Kerry Margin (millions)1 100% 3.21 (NEP final)2 100% 6.65 (NEP preliminary)3  99% 6.84 ""4  98% 7.02 ""5  97% 7.20 ""

THE FINAL NATIONAL EXIT POLL OF 13660 is matched to the final recorded vote. Bush won the poll by 3.22 million votes
(51.1-48.5%).
The poll asserts that 43% of Bush 2000 voters (an IMPOSSIBLE 104.14% turnout) came to the polls in 2004, while just 37% of Gore voters did. The proof: Bush received 50.456 million votes in 2000, or 41.26% of the total 122.26 million who voted in 2004.

According to death rate statistics, approximately 3.5% of 2000 voters have died. Subtracting 3.5% from the 2000 individual votes for Gore and Bush, and dividing the net result by 122.26 mm, then the MAXIMUM POSSIBLE LIVE 2000 voter turnout was 39.82% (Bush) and 40.25% (Gore).

  FINAL EXIT POLL (13660):IMPOSSIBLE WEIGHTINGSVoted   2000    Mix     Bush    Kerry   Nader20.774  No      17%     45%     54%     1%45.214  Gore    37%     10%     90%     1%52.546  Bush    43%     91%     9%      0%3.666   Other   3%      21%     71%     3%101.426 TOTAL   100%    51.11%  48.48%  0.63%        Votes   122.53  62.49   59.27   0.77Bush    Margin  3.22REALISTIC SCENARIOS:Scenario 1FINAL 13660 POLL WEIGHTS- ADJUSTED FOR 3.5% DEATH RATE100% turnout of 2000 voters: 101.097 millionVoted   2000    Mix     Bush    Kerry   Nader21.163  None    17.31%  45%     54%     1%49.210  Gore    40.25%  10%     90%     0%48.684  Bush    39.82%  91%     9%      0%3.203   Other   2.62%   13%     71%     16%        TOTAL   100.00% 48.39%  51.02%  0.59%122.26  Votes           59.16   62.37   0.72Kerry   Margin  3.21Scenario 2PRELIMINARY 13047 POLL- WEIGHTS ADJUSTED FOR 3.5% DEATHRATE100% turnout of 2000 voters: 101.097 millionVoted   2000    Mix     Bush    Kerry   Nader21.163  None    17.31%  41.5%   57.5%   1%49.210  Gore    40.25%  8%      91%     1%48.684  Bush    39.82%  90%     9%      1%3.203   Other   2.62%   13%     71%     16%        TOTAL   100.00% 46.58%  52.02%  1.39%122.26  Votes   122.26  56.95   63.61   1.70Kerry   Margin  6.65Scenario 3 (Most Likely)99% turnout of 2000 voters: 99.874      millionVoted   2000    Mix     Bush    Kerry   Nader22.386  None    18.31%  41.5%   57.5%   1%48.598  Gore    39.75%  8%      91%     1%48.073  Bush    39.32%  90%     9%      1%3.203   Other   2.62%   13%     71%     16%        TOTAL   100.00% 46.51%  52.10%  1.39%122.26  Votes   122.26  56.86   63.70   1.70Kerry   Margin  6.84Scenario 498% turnout of 2000 voters: 98.652      millionVoted   2000    Mix     Bush    Kerry   Nader23.608  None    19.31%  41.5%   57.5%   1%47.987  Gore    39.25%  8%      91%     1%47.461  Bush    38.82%  90%     9%      1%3.203   Other   2.62%   13%     71%     16%        TOTAL   100.00% 46.43%  52.17%  1.39%122.26  Votes   122.26  56.77   63.79   1.70Kerry   Margin  7.02Scenario 597% turnout of 2000 voters: 97.429      millionVoted   2000    Mix     Bush    Kerry   Nader24.831  None    20.31%  41.5%   57.5%   1%47.376  Gore    38.75%  8%      91%     1%46.850  Bush    38.32%  90%     9%      1%3.203   Other   2.62%   13%     71%     16%        TOTAL   100.00% 46.36%  52.25%  1.39%122.26  Votes   122.26  56.68   63.88   1.70Kerry   Margin  7.20

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PRE-ELECTION STATE POLLS vs. EXIT POLLS vs. ACTUALS
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=330449

The weighted national pre-election poll average (50.51%)
matched the exit poll average (50.37%).
That's 1/7 of one percent.

Total percentages are based on the weighted average.
Kerry's actual 2-party vote: 48.76% = 59028/121056

Votes and percentages are 2-party based.
Vote percentages are shown for Kerry.
Bush% = 100 - Kerry%.

Pre: final pre-election state poll average.
Exit: exit poll 2-party percentages based on data downloaded
by Simon at 12:22am Nov.3.

P/A = 100*Pre/Actual
E/A = 100*Exit/Actual

Prob: Probability of deviation
P/A Prob = pre-election poll to actual
E/A Prob = exit poll to actual

Based on the pre-election polls:
41 out of 51 states (incl DC) deviated to Bush
Based on the exit polls:
43 out of 51 deviated to Bush

                                                      Pre/   Exit/  Prob  Prob  Favor Favor      Vote   Pre    Exit   Act    Pre   Exit  Act   Act    Act    P/A   E/A   Pre   ExitTotal 121056 50.37% 50.51% 48.76% 60979 61144 59028 103.3% 103.6% 14.1% 12.2% 41B   43BAK    302    34.48% 40.14% 36.77% 104   121   111   94%    109%   6.3%  1.2%  K     BAL    1870   40.63% 41.08% 37.10% 760   768   694   109%   111%   0.9%  0.4%  B     BAR    1043   50.00% 46.60% 45.07% 522   486   470   111%   103%   0.1%  15.4% B     BAZ    1998   47.37% 46.93% 44.72% 946   938   894   106%   105%   3.9%  7.1%  B     BCA    12255  53.85% 55.73% 55.04% 6599  6830  6745  98%    101%   21.3% 32.3% K     BCO    2103   49.47% 49.07% 47.63% 1040  1032  1002  104%   103%   11.0% 16.9% B     BCT    1551   55.32% 58.47% 55.27% 858   907   857   100%   106%   48.8% 1.6%  B     BDC    224    87.64% 91.63% 90.52% 197   205   203   97%    101%   2.7%  22.9% K     BDE    372    54.22% 58.44% 53.83% 202   217   200   101%   109%   39.9% 0.1%  B     BFL    7548   51.55% 49.93% 47.48% 3891  3769  3584  109%   105%   0.3%  5.1%  B     BGA    3280   44.68% 43.11% 41.65% 1466  1414  1366  107%   104%   2.2%  16.5% B     BHI    426    50.00% 53.32% 54.40% 213   227   232   92%    98%    0.2%  23.5% K     KIA    1494   53.19% 50.67% 49.66% 795   757   742   107%   102%   0.9%  25.0% B     BID    590    33.71% 33.33% 30.68% 199   197   181   110%   109%   2.2%  3.8%  B     BIL    5239   56.25% 57.13% 55.21% 2947  2993  2892  102%   103%   24.3% 10.0% B     BIN    2448   40.21% 40.97% 39.58% 984   1003  969   102%   104%   33.7% 17.7% B     BKS    1171   38.14% 34.60% 37.13% 447   405   435   103%   93%    25.0% 4.6%  B     KKY    1782   41.05% 40.76% 39.99% 732   726   713   103%   102%   24.0% 30.6% B     BLA    1922   45.45% 44.50% 42.67% 874   855   820   107%   104%   3.2%  11.2% B     BMA    2875   70.33% 66.46% 62.74% 2022  1911  1804  112%   106%   0.0%  0.7%  B     BMD    2359   55.67% 57.04% 56.57% 1313  1346  1334  98%    101%   27.5% 37.6% K     BME    727    56.18% 54.83% 54.58% 408   399   397   103%   100%   14.4% 43.4% B     BMI    4793   53.61% 52.55% 51.73% 2569  2519  2479  104%   102%   10.5% 29.1% B     BMN    2792   54.17% 54.61% 51.76% 1512  1525  1445  105%   106%   5.4%  2.9%  B     BMO    2715   47.31% 47.47% 46.38% 1284  1289  1259  102%   102%   26.7% 23.3% B     BMS    1130   45.16% 43.20% 40.49% 511   488   458   112%   107%   0.1%  3.6%  B     BMT    440    38.71% 39.28% 39.50% 170   173   174   98%    99%    70.1% 44.2% K     KNC    3487   48.45% 47.31% 43.76% 1690  1650  1526  111%   108%   0.1%  0.9%  B     BND    308    38.89% 33.58% 36.09% 120   103   111   108%   93%    3.1%  4.7%  B     KNE    767    34.41% 36.54% 33.15% 264   280   254   104%   110%   20.1% 1.2%  B     BNH    672    50.00% 55.49% 50.69% 336   373   341   99%    109%   32.3% 0.1%  K     BNJ    3581   54.35% 56.13% 53.37% 1946  2010  1911  102%   105%   25.7% 3.3%  B     BNM    748    50.00% 51.34% 49.60% 374   384   371   101%   104%   39.5% 12.3% B     BNV    816    50.00% 50.66% 48.68% 408   413   397   103%   104%   19.0% 9.4%  B     BNY    7277   59.38% 63.97% 59.29% 4321  4655  4314  100%   108%   47.7% 0.1%  B     BOH    5599   51.55% 52.06% 48.94% 2886  2915  2740  105%   106%   4.1%  1.9%  B     BOK    1464   31.46% 34.73% 34.43% 461   508   504   91%    101%   2.4%  42.1% K     BOR    1810   53.19% 51.22% 52.11% 963   927   943   102%   98%    23.5% 27.8% B     KPA    5732   52.63% 54.41% 51.26% 3017  3119  2938  103%   106%   18.0% 1.8%  B     BRI    429    60.87% 64.24% 60.58% 261   275   260   100%   106%   42.3% 0.7%  B     BSC    1600   43.30% 45.78% 41.36% 693   732   662   105%   111%   9.9%  0.2%  B     BSD    382    44.68% 37.42% 39.09% 171   143   149   114%   96%    0.0%  13.3% B     KTN    2421   48.98% 41.15% 42.81% 1186  996   1036  114%   96%    0.0%  13.4% B     KTX    7360   38.54% 36.84% 38.49% 2837  2711  2833  100%   96%    48.6% 13.5% B     KUT    905    25.81% 29.93% 26.65% 234   271   241   97%    112%   28.6% 1.4%  K     BVA    3172   47.96% 47.96% 45.87% 1521  1521  1455  105%   105%   8.1%  8.1%  B     BVT    305    56.99% 65.69% 60.30% 174   201   184   95%    109%   1.4%  0.0%  K     BWA    2815   54.17% 55.07% 53.65% 1525  1550  1510  101%   103%   36.4% 17.2% B     BWI    2968   53.68% 50.21% 50.19% 1593  1490  1490  107%   100%   1.0%  49.4% B     BWV    750    48.42% 45.19% 43.52% 363   339   327   111%   104%   0.1%  13.2% B     BWY    238    30.85% 32.07% 29.69% 74    76    71    104%   108%   21.9% 5.6%  B     BAvg   121056 48.57% 48.84% 47.09% 60979 61144 59028 103.4% 103.8% 16.3% 9.7%  B     BMedian       50.00% 49.07% 47.48%                   102.7% 103.9% 4.6%  9.4%  B     B

The Final National Exit Poll is a FRAUD. Here's proof.
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x379474

The maximum possible percentage of Bush 2000 voters who could
have voted in 2004 is 39.82%.

Bush 2000 voters: 50.456 million
Bush 2000 voters still alive = 48.69mm

Total 2004 voters: 122.3 mm.

Maximum Bush 2000 voters as a percentage of Total 2004
voters:
Bush 2000/Total 2004 = 48.69/122.3 = 39.82%

The same calculation for Gore voters = 40.25%

Now lets look at the National Exit Poll:

 IMPOSSIBLE SCENARIO I:13047 respondents: 12:22amKerry wins easy - even with an IMPOSSIBLE 41% Bush/39% Goresplit        Mix     Bush    Kerry   Nader   Bush    Kerry   NaderNo      17%     41%     57%     2%      7.0%    9.7%    0.3%Gore    39%     8%      91%     1%      3.1%    35.5%   0.4%Bush    41%     90%     10%     0%      36.9%   4.1%    0.0%Other   3%      13%     65%     16%     0.4%    2.0%    0.5%        100%                            47.38%  51.23%  1.21%Probability of Bush going from 47.38% (poll) to 50.73%(vote):1 in 38,498,885,514IMPOSSIBLE SCENARIO II:Final Exit Poll (1:25pm)- 13660 respondents:BUSH WINS: PURE FICTION - 43% IS EVEN MORE IMPOSSIBLEMIX   Bush      Kerry   Nader   Bush    Kerry   NaderNO    17%       45%     54%     1%      7.7%    9.2%    0.2%Gore  37%       10%     90%     1%      3.7%    33.3%   0.4%Bush  43%       91%     9%      0%      39.1%   3.9%    0.0%Other  3%       21%     71%     8%      0.6%    2.1%    0.2%100%                            51.11%  48.48%  0.78%PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO III:Using the calculated maximum possible weightings, Kerry winsin a  landslide:Kerry       63.89mm (52.24%Bush        56.77   (46.42%)Nader/Other 1.49    (1.22%)VOTE2000          Mix     Bush    Kerry   Nader   Bush    Kerry   NaderNo        17.00%  41%     57%     2%      7.0%    9.7%    0.3%Gore      40.24%  8%      91%     1%      3.2%    36.6%   0.4%Bush      39.82%  90%     10%     0%      35.8%   4.0%    0.0%Other     3.00%   13%     65%     16%     0.4%    2.0%    0.5%          100%                            46.42%  52.24%  1.22%